In a Climate Home column, Oxford Professor Thomas Hale explains in detail how the Paris Agreement is robust enough to survive Trump and a Republican Congress. Political resilience was built into it, in fact. Here are the highlights.
1. Getting out of the agreement takes four years.
2. A new president can get back in with a signature, no Senate approval needed.
3. Each nations' commitments are within their own political interest, so the other 189 signatories are likely to follow through anyway.
4. Local, state, and corporate pro-Climate actions could meet the goals without the same federal support. Many are taking action now, not waiting for federal guidance.
5. Renewables are starting to be more economically attractive than fossil fuels.
6. Climate risk is now being factored into corporate and government credit ratings.
I would also add two other factors:
1. With renewables and other green technologies exploding, Washington will do everything it can to make sure the USA leads in those industries. Money talks.
2. U.S. trading partners and allies understand the existential threat facing their peoples. They will put pressure on Washington to do its part.
Keep hope, and keep focused on the goal: halting Global Warming at 2 C or less. Changing Trump and company's minds is besides the point.
